Category Archives: Reading

Kim Stanley Robinson: Green Earth

Cover of Green Earth by Kim Stanley Robinson

“You’re suggesting we need a paradigm shift in how science interacts with society.”
“Yes I am.”

Kim Stanley Robinson has been around for a while, and is probably best known for his Mars trilogy. A lot of his science fiction reflects his own political agenda—strongly environmentalist and anti-capitalist, with a conviction that responsibly applied science is the way to a sustainable future.

I first encountered him when I lifted the first edition of Red Mars off the shelf in a book shop. After leafing through it for a while, I did something I don’t often do—bought a hardback edition of a novel by an author I’d never read before.

Mainly, I was entranced by Robinson’s long, loving descriptions of landscape, and of people moving in landscapes. Sometimes not much happens for pages on end, as people just wander along, talking science and politics and admiring the view. And sometimes, it has to be said, the stuff that does happen seems to be in there just so that the characters can go someplace and have a striking experience—in the Mars trilogy, for instance, there’s an astonishing episode involving Sufi dervishes dancing on the edge of the Vallis Marineris, the largest canyon on Mars. It doesn’t have much to do with the story, and it doesn’t actually make much sense, but by cracky it’s an amazing image, beautifully conjured by Robinson.

This leisurely, discursive, episodic style drives some people crazy—Robinson’s reviews on Amazon usually involve a selection of furious one-star outpourings, often written in capital letters: “This was the most BORING book I have EVER read!!! AVOID!!!”

But if you like that sort of thing, Robinson does it better than pretty much anyone else on the planet at present.

This volume, Green Earth, started life as a trilogy: Forty Signs of Rain (2004), Fifty Degrees Below (2005) and Sixty Days and Counting (2007), collectively called the Science in the Capital trilogy. (You’ll sometimes see it rendered Science in the Capitol, but “Capital” is the version Robinson uses in his preface to Green Earth.) Robinson has trimmed about a quarter off the length of his original three books to convert them into a single, hefty novel—it runs to over a thousand pages in the paperback edition.

I’d been put off reading the original trilogy because of its theme—the near-future politics of global warming. It didn’t seem like a particularly gripping prospect, and I was afraid it would tempt Robinson into riding his environmentalist and anticapitalist hobby-horses a little too hard. But the appearance of the shorter version seemed like a good reason to come back and give it a go.

As the name Science in the Capital suggests, this is a book about scientists trying to talk to politicians. And Robinson is very good at evoking the sort of frustrations that produces—both for the scientists, who think they have a very straightforward message that politicians are failing to absorb; and for the politicians, who can’t get the scientists to understand the trade-offs that are required in order to get anything done in a political setting. But by the end of the first section of the book, central Washington D.C. has been flooded by extreme weather and rising sea levels … and suddenly there’s a concerted political will to get something done about climate change.

There’s a lot of shouting down telephones, a lot of serious scientific debate, and a lot of sitting in committees (Robinson evokes the horror of committee meetings very well; I think he must have sat on a few in his time). But there are also big climatic set-pieces—the storm that floods Washington; the evacuation of a low-lying Indian Ocean island as its sea defences are overwhelmed by the sea; the harsh winter that immobilizes a city and starts killing its citizens; a massive geoengineering project to restart the stalled Gulf Stream.

And, being Robinson, it’s also about a whole lot of other things as well—the joy of running; the tyranny of being the parent of a toddler; espionage; biotechnology; Buddhism; reincarnation; how to be homeless; how to live in a treehouse; evolutionary sociobiology; the serenity of rock climbing; living with a brain injury.

To cram all this in, he does his usual trick of moving characters around on sometimes rather flimsy pretexts. At one point the parents of the Toddler from Hell undertake a long-haul plane journey that they could have easily avoided. Forget restarting the Gulf Stream—that was the most improbable moment in the book, for me.

As usual, I forgive Robinson these implausibilities because the journey is so much fun. As just one example, I cherish his translation of what birds are saying to each other as they sing in the trees: The rain has gone! The sun is here! I am here! I am singing!

My only problem, and it was a serious one, was that none of the central characters was remotely likeable. Frank, the homeless tree-house-dwelling sociobiologist was certainly interesting, but his endless oscillation between impulsiveness and indecision got wearing pretty quickly. And Charlie and Anna, a policy wonk and a scientist who are the parents of the ghastly toddler, were so self-centred and driven it was difficult to sympathize with their various crises at work and at home. In a way, Robinson is a victim of his own success, here. He created complicated, believable people—but they’d be less irritating if they seemed less real. (I’m reminded of Claire Danes’s performance as Carrie Mathison in Homeland. That was a superlative piece of acting, but it produced a character so intensely annoying that I simply couldn’t be in the same room.)

So despite Robinson’s evocative and lyrical writing, I find the thought of meeting Frank, Charlie and Anna again profoundly depressing. I won’t be rereading this one.

Fairy Circles

Fairy Circles, Namibia
Click to enlarge
© The Boon Companion, 2009

 

Fairy Circles, Namibia (detail)
Detail of above. Click to enlarge
© The Boon Companion, 2009

Not to be confused with fairy rings, which are circles of mushrooms and other fungi. These fairy circles were photographed in Namibia, and they’re a feature of the semi-arid margin of the Namib Desert. They form on sandy soil in regions where the annual rainfall is between 50 and 150 mm. They have a bare centre, and a raised rim with a strong growth of grass. And they have a life cycle—appearing at about two metres diameter, growing to 10 or 12 metres over a period of decades, and then dissipating, to be replaced by new circles. There’s a region of (relatively) high soil water content immediately under the bare central area. Rainwater falling in the bare area quickly percolates down into the soil, and the soil here suffers less evaporative loss because the water isn’t being sucked up by plants and lost by transpiration from their leaves. A cross-section of a fairy circle looks like this, with the wetter region marked in blue:

Fairy Circle cross section
Based on Juergens, 2013

When we saw them in 2009 they were a bit of a mystery, with multiple competing explanations for how they formed. The game guides in the NamibRand told us that an experiment was afoot in the reserve to try to narrow down the possible mechanisms, but they didn’t have any details at that time. It turned out to be a multifaceted, five-year experiment that was reported in PLoS One last year.

More of that in a minute. First, a summary of the competing explanations:

  • Insect feeding (ants or termites)
  • Residual plant toxins (from, for instance, Euphorbia)
  • Poisonous gases
  • Soil radioactivity
  • Nutrient deficiency
  • A “self organizing” emergent property of the vegetation

So Walter Tschinkel’s experiment in the NamibRand reserve was designed to test some of these possibilities. (Tschinkel WR. Experiment Testing the Causes of Namibian Fairy Circles. PLoS ONE (2015) 10(10): e0140099.) He buried an impervious membrane beneath some fairy circles, but this did not alter their density and growth compared to controls. He transferred soil from the circles to a cleared area to see if it would create new circles (it didn’t), and soil from areas outside the circles into the bare zones of existing circles, to see if that would “heal” them (it didn’t). And he tried adding fertilizer to the bare circles, with no effect.

So Tschinkel effectively eliminated hypotheses involving gases seeping from below, toxins in the circle soil, and nutrient deficiencies.

While Tschinkel’s study was on-going, Norbert Juergens published an investigation into the role of insects in the circles. (Juergens N. The Biological Underpinnings of Namib Desert Fairy Circles. Science 2013 339: 1618-21.) Juergens had sampled insect populations associated with fairy circles and had discovered that, although several species of ant and termite appear to be associated with fairy circles, only one species turned up everywhere these fairy circles form:  the sand termite Psammotermes allocerus. And P. allocerus turned up frequently in the circles sampled (80-100%) and also early in their development (before the onset of water accumulation and the characteristic grassy rim). So Juergens proposed that the termites were effectively “farming” the circles—creating them by killing a patch of grass, exploiting the water that accumulated in the resulting bare patch, and then expanding the circle by eating the grass on its rim, which thrived because of the additional water in the soil.

But, as Tschinkel subsequently pointed out, association is not causation. Juergens had observed a correlation between fairy circles and P. allocerus nests, but had carried out no test interventions (removing the termites to see if a circle recovered, for instance). It’s possible that the termites were merely exploiting a patch of dying grass and an area of water accumulation caused by something else. It would also be interesting to know whether or not P. allocerus colonies typically develop with a scale and spacing that matches the behaviour of fairy circles.

Because the spacing of fairy circles is quite striking. Here’s a Google Earth view of the fairy circles near Wolwedans Dunes Lodge, where we stayed during our time in the NamibRand:

Google Earth view of fairy circles at Wolwedans, Namibia
Click to enlarge

There’s a natural spacing to them, as if each circle somehow repels those around it. And this can be confirmed mathematically—on average, the circles are maximizing their own space in competition with their neighbours. And that’s what leads to the idea that the circles are somehow self-organizing—that simple local rules about how plant grow and utilize water leads to the emergence of a global pattern.

You can see a similar emergent pattern in the convection cells that form in a pan of boiling water:

There’s uniform heating at the bottom of the pan, which makes the water at the bottom less dense than the surface water. But hot water can’t rise to the surface everywhere—there’s got to be room for cold surface water to descend as well. So the water spontaneously sorts itself out into multiple cells with rising water in the middle and sinking water at the edges.

Likewise, we can imagine fairy circles arising because rainfall is insufficient to support a continuous carpet of grass. Instead, bare patches catch enough water to support a surrounding halo of grass, and by doing that inhibit the formation of nearby bare patches. As that situation plays out, a landscape dotted with fairy circles might be one stable solution that could emerge.

Hence the excitement, last month, at the report of fairy circles in Australia (Getzin et al. Discovery of Fairy Circles in Australia Supports Self-Organization Theory. PNAS 2016 113(13): 3551-6). We now have a second, strikingly similar pattern of bare circles with surrounding vegetation, occurring in a near-desert environment. Here’s an image from Google Earth:

Google Earth view of fairy circles, Australia
Click to enlarge

But this pattern involves different vegetation (spinifex grass), no consistent association with termites, and a different mode of water collection—in the Australian case, the bare circular patch develops a hard crust and sheds water from its surface towards plants at its edges.

This lends credibility to the idea that this pattern is something that can emerge spontaneously when biomass is trying to make the best of scarce water resources. So those Namibian termites might well just be part of the pattern, rather than its cause.

Wolwedans Dune Camp
Click to enlarge
A room with a view © The Boon Companion, 2009

Ginge Fullen: Finding Bikku Bitti

Front cover of Finding Bikku BittiThe dangers this year were pretty much the same as the last attempt. Landmines were still in the ground, the area was still off limits, there was a possibility of being robbed by bandits, a slight possibility of being taken hostage by rebels and an even slighter possibility of meeting a Libyan military patrol while in the mountains. Given the long odds of any of them happening I thought it was quite good odds really.

I should confess to a certain bias, here—I get a mention in this one.

I first met Ginge Fullen back in the late ’90s, when he was climbing the highest point of every country in Europe. I had just compiled a volume for TACit Tables entitled World Tops And Bottoms: High And Low Points Of All Countries And Their Dependencies. (It’s now both out of print and out of date.) He got in contact after he saw my tables, with some questions and some comments. After that, I found myself drawn into his Africa’s Highest Challenge project, in which he set out to climb the highest point of all 53 countries in Africa. It took him almost exactly five years, between December 2000 and December 2005.

Back then, we had very little information about the highest points in many of these countries—surveys were poor or non-existent, quoted heights were usually wrong and usually overestimates, and very few locals knew or cared what the highest point in their country was.

My role was to dig out and compare topographic maps, to extract  heights from the newly available Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data, and to work out where the borders ran relative to the mountains. Then I’d send an e-mail telling Ginge what I thought, and he would disappear off into the bush/desert/jungle for a few weeks, to return with a GPS reading and a tale to tell. Given how baroquely inaccessible and sometimes dangerous many of these places happened to be, you can probably imagine that I often felt a certain moral pressure to get my facts right.

Bikku Bitti, in Libya, was one of those places. It was the final peak in Africa’s Highest Challenge—smack dab in the middle of the Libyan Desert, hard against the disputed border with Chad, surrounded by minefields, discarded ordnance, border guards, smugglers, bandits and reputedly unwelcoming locals. I had tapped a finger on a computer screen and confirmed to Ginge that I was pretty sure the highest point in all that desert seemed to be a conical mountain just north of the Chad border … and he went off to climb it.

SRTM data for Bikku Bitti
Bikku Bitti in SRTM data, Chad-Libya border marked in red

Finding Bikku Bitti tells the story of Ginge’s two failed attempts to get to this mountain, across 400 kilometres of desert (he almost died during the second expedition), and his final successful ascent (the first recorded) on 4th December 2005.

It’s a slim volume—just 54 pages—and mainly pictorial. The pictures are bright and nicely reproduced. You can leaf through some sample pages online at the book’s webpage on blurb.co.uk and blurb.com. Ginge uses a nom de plume given to him by the local Toubou people—Korra Kala, “short and strong”—and credits his Toubou guide, Kosseya Barda, as a coauthor. I doubt if Barda wrote a word for the book, but he was certainly a coauthor of the successful expedition, and it’s typical of Ginge to give generous credit and acknowledgement in this way.

The text tells the story in laconic style (the quotation at the head of this post is typical). Scattered among the pages are a copy of a congratulatory letter from HRH Prince Charles, a scan of Ginge’s entry in the Guinness Book of Records, and a reproduction of a letter written by one of Ginge’s friends, attempting to put a bet on his death in the desert during the third attempt. (William Hill declined to give odds.)

The photographs show the madly rough terrain he encountered, while the text describes the endless casting around for a route through to the chosen mountain, as water supplies ticked down towards the point of no return.

If I have a complaint, it’s that the story of the third, successful attempt is reduced to some photographs of the people and locations involved, a summit group picture, and a copy of the e-mail exchange that confirmed success. Again I think it’s typical of Ginge that, at the critical moment when he could have describe a personal triumph, he instead chose to feature those who helped him along the way.

And, actually, probably the best way to summarize this book is just to show you the photograph of the authors on the back cover:Back cover of Finding Bikku Bitti


Note: I’ve now reviewed the next book Ginge has written, concerning his improbable search for the highest point in Bangladesh. You can find that review here.

Arthur C. Clarke: Childhood’s End

Cover of An Arthur C. Clarke Omnibus

“I’ve only one more question,” he said. “What shall we do about our children?”
“Enjoy them while you may,” answered Rashaverak gently. “They will not be yours for long.”
It was advice that might have been given to any parent in any age; but now it contained a threat and a terror it had never held before.

The broadcast of Syfy’s miniseries Childhood’s End by Sky in the UK induced me to pull Arthur C. Clarke‘s original novel off the shelf and read it again.

As the Syfy trailer above suggests, the story starts with what is now a rather standard alien-invasion trope—giant spaceships show up over Earth’s major cities, and the alien Overlords announce that they’re here for our own good. But after that, Clarke’s novel heads off in various interesting directions, and the Overlords gradually take on a unexpectedly tragic aspect.

My own copy of the novel is embedded in an ancient hardcover volume published by Sidgwick and Jackson in 1965: An Arthur C. Clarke Omnibus, which contains his early novels Childhood’s End (1953) and  Prelude to Space (1953), together with his first short story collection, Expedition to Earth (1953).

That old omnibus edition nowadays seems to be rare and hard to get hold of, but you can easily lay hands on a copy of Childhood’s End, as an ebook or a new paperback, for about a fiver.

It’s a fine novel—clever in the way it plays with the double meaning of its title, clever in framing the ambiguous purposes of its aliens, clever in the way it ramps a sense of unease even while everything seems to be going very well indeed.

Clarke said that Childhood’s End was one of his favourites among his own novels. And to me it seems to be the novel in which Clarke established his particular narrative voice. There’s his gentle, sly humour: as when a polite guest, having listened to a performance of avant garde music, congratulates the composers on their “great ingenuity”. There’s his endless willingness to riff on ideas peripheral to the plot: in this novel there’s a divagation on the future of animated cartoons (in which Clarke predicts that they’ll progressively become harder and harder to distinguish from reality). There’s his gleeful playing with the reader’s expectations: the Overlords enforce an end to all racial discrimination by causing a thirty-minute eclipse of the sun in Cape Town, after which, “… the Government of South Africa announced that full civil rights would be restored to the white minority.” And there’s his ability to pick out a single, telling detail that sticks in the mind: as when a child, who has walked out on to a reef exposed by the withdrawal of the ocean before a tsunami, hears, “… a sucking, gurgling sound, as of a river racing through a narrow channel. It was the voice of the reluctantly retreating sea […] Through the graceful branches of the coral, through the hidden submarine caves, millions of tons of water were draining from the lagoon into the vastness of the Pacific.”

And then, of course, there’s his ability to movingly conjure up the utterly alien:

The planet was absolutely flat. Its enormous gravity had long ago crushed into one uniform level the mountains of its fiery youth—mountains whose mightiest peaks had never exceeded a few metres in height. Yet there was life here, for the surface was covered with a myriad geometrical patterns that crawled and moved and changed their colour. It was a world of two dimensions, inhabited by beings who could be no more than a fraction of a centimetre in thickness.
And in its sky was such a sun as no opium eater could have imagined in his wildest dreams. Too hot to be white, it was a searing ghost at the frontiers of the ultra-violet, burning its planets with radiations which would be instantly lethal to all earthly forms of life. For millions of kilometres around extended great veils of gas and dust, fluorescing in countless colours as the blast of ultra-violet tore through them.

Of course, nothing written in the 1950s can ring entirely true with a modern reader—a United Nations communication centre that is full of fax and telex machines; an astronomer who has to travel to a library to consult a paper star catalogue—but (as ever) Clarke is well worth reading.

George J. Marrett: Contrails Over The Mojave

Contrails Over The Mojave cover

Some pilots, though probably due to the luck of the draw, always seemed to get the plane that comes apart in the air.

George J. Marrett was a United States Air Force (USAF) test pilot in the Fighter Test Branch of Flight Test Operations at Edwards Air Force Base during the 1960s, and Contrails Over The Mojave: The Golden Age of Jet Flight Testing at Edwards Air Force Base (2008) is a volume of autobiography dealing with that period of his life.  It’s a sequel to Cheating Death: Combat Air Rescues in Vietnam and Laos (2003) and Testing Death: Hughes Aircraft Test Pilots and Cold War Weaponry (2004), which describe later periods of his life—his time in Vietnam and at the Hughes Aircraft Corporation, respectively.

It starts with his childhood in the 1940s. (The first photograph in the book is of a very cute seven-year-old Marrett and his friend, sporting leather flight helmets, goggles and contented smiles, looking remarkably like the two kids at the start of the film Up.) The book follows him through flight training, Aerospace Research Pilot School, and fighter testing at Edwards until he departs for Vietnam.

Marrett’s keen on detail—well, with a job like his he would need to be, wouldn’t he? So we learn the production history and tail numbers of most of the aircraft he writes about. We also get the full names, ranks and potted biographies of his fellow pilots. What is it with American pilots and their endless nicknames? Once I’d sat through Captain Herbert F. “Herb” Brightwell, Major Robert H. “Bob” Lawrence Jr. and Captain James W. “Jim” Hurt III, I began to fantasize that Marrett would perhaps write something like, “Everyone just called him ‘John’—I never knew his full name.” But no luck on that front. However, as I got farther into the book I began to notice that many of the people Marrett name-checked went on to die, either in combat or aircraft accidents—so I can see why he wants us to get their names right. The ’60s may have been a Golden Age for flight testing, but they were also pretty lethal for fighter pilots and test pilots.

The book is a nice primer on the practicalities of test-piloting. I came away with a better idea of what the job entails—systematically and carefully testing the performance envelope of new aircraft, rather than just throwing them through a few manoeuvres and seeing if anything bad happened. And I hadn’t fully appreciated the pivotal and demanding role of the chase-plane pilot, who sometimes has to get in very close to the test aircraft to check the behaviour of landing gear or control surfaces. This is not without hazard, especially in supersonic flight, when the shock wave from the test aircraft not only generates turbulence for the chase plane, but subtly refracts light so that neither pilot sees the other aircraft in its true position.

I found out what it was that gave the F-104 Starfighter its nickname, “The Widowmaker”. At high angles of attack the wings robbed the high tail-plane of lift, so the tail would drop, making the aircraft pitch up and spin. Marrett was also not very happy with my other childhood favourite aircraft, the F-4 Phantom. It became unstable in various flight modes, and McDonnell Douglas did not adopt all of Marrett’s suggested revisions to the aircraft. He feels that many F-4 crashes in Vietnam were probably because pilots lost control during vigorous combat manoeuvres.

We also read about some seriously strange design decisions. The swing wings on the F-111 Aardvark were operated by a lever in the cockpit that had to be moved forward to swing the wings back, and backwards to bring the wings forward, prompting the test pilots to stick a label on it reading, “Fore Is Aft, Aft Is Fore”. And the XB-70 Valkyrie had landing gear of such complexity that it had multiple failure modes, one of which positioned the wheels inconveniently transverse to the axis of the aircraft.

And there’s quite a lot that ties into the early American space program. Some astronauts, like Bill Anders and Fred Haise, came through the USAF test pilot system at the same time as Marrett. There’s a lot about the X-15 rocket plane, and a little about the politics behind the cancelled USAF space projects, the X-20 Dyna-Soar and the Manned Orbiting Laboratory.

It was while reading about Bruce Peterson‘s crash in the M2-F2 lifting body (a test platform for the later Space Shuttle) that I suddenly thought: I know this crash. A lack of roll control on descent, leading to repeated side-to-side oscillations; then a sliding, gear-up impact with the ground that quickly converted to an end-over-end tumble. Watch the video of the crash, and be amazed to learn that Peterson survived to fly another day:

Yes, it was Peterson’s crash that featured in the opening titles of The Six Million Dollar Man, a TV series still remembered fondly by many of us in Late Advanced Youth:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpAqkW7SJ2Y

As Marrett reports in the Epilogue to this book:

Peterson complained that he disliked having his accident repeatedly played on television. He hated reliving his accident week after week as he watched the show […]

Fair enough, really.

Carrie Gibson: Empire’s Crossroads

Empire's Crossroads coverEmpire’s Crossroads is subtitled A History of the Caribbean from Columbus to the Present Day. Which is what it is. It’s historian Carrie Gibson‘s first book, built around her long-standing interest in the Caribbean.

It was always going to be a challenge to put together a coherent narrative, given how many islands there are in the Caribbean, how many North, Central and South American countries border it, and how many different empires have fought over it.

Gibson succeeds mainly at the beginning and the end. At the beginning, there’s a single strand of Atlantic exploration, Columbus’s voyages and the early impact of Spanish exploitation in the region. Then there are a couple of big themes—sugar and slavery—dealt with in satisfactory detail.

In the middle, the story (like the Caribbean) dissolves into a confusion of events. The narrative shifts back and forth in time, jumps from location to location, and occasionally feels rushed and skimpy. This sea was fought over by the navies of several powers for many years, but Gibson isn’t really interested in the naval battles—only the Battle of the Saintes is dealt with in any detail, and for that she concentrates mainly on the personality of Admiral Sir Charles Rodney.

I did learn a lot about the American War of Independence, though, in which the revolutionaries were greatly supported by foreign aid from France, Spain and the Netherlands, channelled through their possessions in the Caribbean. Gibson provides one a killer statistic—that 90% of the gunpowder used by the Americans  in the early years of the war came from the Caribbean, particularly the Dutch Caribbean.

And I learned that Sweden, of all places, once had a colonial foothold in the Caribbean. Saint Barthélemy, nowadays a Caribbean clone of the French Riviera, was Swedish soil for most of the nineteenth century.

Gibson also writes well about how the end of slavery brought its own problems, in the form of destitute ex-slaves and collapsing colonial economies.

By the time we reach the twentieth century, we’re back to big themes, and the narrative becomes more coherent again—independence movements, the problems of racism, the movement of workers in and out of the area, the advent of tourism, and the advent of drug smuggling. The Cold War looms large, as the USA tries endlessly to adjust the politics and economics of the Caribbean to match its own interests. Gibson is notable impatient about this, and at times loses her historian’s disinterested stance:

US interference perhaps reached its apogee in this period, with the Cold War as a pretext for seemingly incessant meddling.

So I think we know how she feels about that, then.

Although the end of the Cold War saw the disappearance of Soviet intervention, and a damping down of the influence (overt and covert) of the USA, the poor Caribbean is still at the mercy of outside forces. I had no idea that China and Taiwan were conducting an ongoing popularity contest in these waters, pumping money into the area in exchange for voting allegiances in the United Nations. And then of course there’s the International Monetary Fund—some of the islands are servicing crippling debts that exceed their Gross Domestic Product.

And I also learned about Rastafarianism, the Black Power movement, the source of the phrase “banana republic”, and the origins of reggae. In fact, I reached the end of the book with the sense that I had learned a very great deal, but without really being able to gather it together in my head. I’m not sure how much I’ll recall in a month’s time.

Fortunately, the book has an excellent index—it’s easy to assemble the history of a particular island, for instance. There’s also a timeline of the main events, and a compact little gazetteer for the islands and the surrounding coast.

There are just three maps, which isn’t a lot, given the time span and the area covered. But then, I always think books need more maps.

Greg Egan: The “Orthogonal” Trilogy

Orthogonal trilogy Greg EganGreg Egan is an Australian mathematician who has been writing hard science fiction for thirty years, although his hard science is the stuff that sits at the borderland of philosophy: the relationship between mathematics and reality, the nature of consciousness, the implications of quantum mechanics. Previous novels have involved speculations on what life might be like if quantum superpositions could involve entire people (like the cat in Schrödinger’s infamous thought experiment), and what it might be like to inhabit a universe with an extra spatial dimension.

Anyway, as you can see, Egan is so well established that his publisher has given him his own typeface, and his name printed bigger than the title.

When The Clockwork Rocket was published in 2011, it was a new departure for Egan, because it was billed as the first part of a trilogy—his previous novels have all stood alone. And, knowing how complicated his science fiction is, I had a horrible feeling I wouldn’t be able to properly remember the set-up from the first book by the time the second and third volumes were published. So I bought the book, and stock-piled it. I did the same for The Eternal Flame in 2012, and The Arrows Of Time in 2013.

Finally, I’ve got around to reading all three as if they were a single, 1,000-page novel—and I’m glad I waited.

What has preoccupied Egan in these novels is the geometry of spacetime. Although Einstein showed us that time is simply another dimension, he also showed that it’s a different kind of dimension—it’s treated differently mathematically, in a way that gives spacetime a hyperbolic geometry, which produces all the distortions of space and time experienced by observers in relative motion. Egan asked himself what a universe would be like if the time dimension was exactly like the space dimensions, producing a basic spacetime geometry that could be understood by Euclid. He did a lot of mathematics with this idea, working hard to come up with the physics for an internally consistent alternate universe, with that kind of spacetime, which could support intelligent life. A sample of his workings appear on his website.

Egan’s new universe is a strange place—one in which it’s possible to achieve infinite velocity with a finite amount of energy, in which the total energy of a moving object is less than that of a stationary one, in which it’s impossible to lose heat by thermal radiation, in which you can travel in time or convert yourself to antimatter simply by motoring around at a high velocity on a curved course. The physics of matter is different, too—liquids are horribly unstable, so biology has to be based on solids and gases. Egan comes up with flexible beings who continuously remodel their bodies using internal light signals. Into that mix, he stirs a unique method of reproduction—females, once “triggered” by a male, become dormant, adopt a smooth elliptical shape, and then split into between two and four children. The children are then cared for by the male.

So he’s given himself a ludicrously complicated set-up to impart in the form of a novel. No wonder he decided to build his alien society around recognizable human models (schools, factories, farms), and to give his aliens recognizable human emotions and concerns. At least there are some things we can take for granted as the story progresses.

He does marvellously well in drip-feeding the strange biology (and its associated gender politics) into the story without subjecting the reader to huge data-dumps. For the physics … well, the story is about the physics, to a large extent. In the three novels we follow three separate generations of scientists as they piece together the detail of how their universe works.

In The Clockwork Rocket, the simple geometry of the universe allows scientists to come to an understanding of spacetime while at a technological level similar to our Enlightenment—as if Newton discovered Relativity. The odd energetics means that they can also access the equivalent of nuclear energy via simple chemistry. The “clockwork rocket” of the title is a multigeneration interstellar spacecraft, an entire mountain launched into space with “chemical” rockets, stabilized and maintained by simple clockwork mechanisms.

In The Eternal Flame, the inhabitants of the interstellar ship develop their equivalent of quantum mechanics and laser technology. Egan’s scientists do a lot of talking and draw a lot of diagrams, and I found this a little more wearing than I did in the previous novel. Multiple pages detailing the discovery of quaternions was too much even for me, and I like quaternions. This was offset by a separate story strand about the aliens’ problematic reproductive biology, in which females die while producing children. Scientists attempting to find ways for females to avoid or survive childbirth are subjected to harassment that has clear parallels in our own world.

In The Arrows Of Time, Egan shows how his universe allows the inhabitants to reverse the direction of flow of their own time, relative to other objects. It’s possible to receive messages from your own future—what might the implications of that be? It’s also possible to bring big, complicated objects together which have their entropy running in opposite temporal directions—what happens if you land on a planet that is ageing in reverse?

So:
Lots of big fun physics, for people who like big fun physics. But many little personal stories of conflict, failure, success and deeply strange love. There are characters in jeopardy, puzzles to be solved, daring rescues and civil insurrections. But if you don’t like big fun physics, I suspect the background to this series might be too weirdly complicated to let you just wing the science and enjoy the story.


Note: I’ve now review Egan’s subsequent big fun physics novel, Dichronauts. You can find that review here.

Kruger & Dunning: Unskilled and Unaware of It – How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments

Well, that’s the news from Lake Wobegon—where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average.

Garrison Keillor, Lake Wobegon monologues, passim

My paper this time comes from the June 1999 edition of the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Here is a link to the original article (440KB pdf).

It’s a classic—the foundation document for what is now called the Dunning-Kruger Effect. I’ve come to reread it for reasons I’ll get to at the end of this post. It’s also well worth reading because it is beautifully written and contains jokes, which isn’t something you see every day.

The authors have the following argument:

… that the skills that engender competence in a particular domain are often the very same skills necessary to evaluate competence in that domain—one’s own and anyone else’s.

Only if you’re good at grammar can you tell that you’re good at grammar, in other words. Those who are rubbish at grammar lack the necessary metacognitive skill to identify their own shortcomings.

It’s a commonplace observation that most people think they’re above average at most things—that’s Garrison Keillor’s joke at the head of this piece. In fact, this trait of illusory superiority has also been called the Lake Wobegon Effect in Keillor’s honour. If lack of skill and lack of metacognitive skill go together in many areas of human endeavour, it might provide a partial explanation for the Lake Wobegon Effect.

So the authors carried out four studies aimed at testing various aspects of metacognition in the competent and incompetent. One study involved humour, two involved logic, and one involved grammar. In each study, a group of volunteers would complete a task which would be objectively scored. Unaware of the test results, the participants were then asked to rate their performance in the task, and also to say how they thought they had performed relative to the other participants. (The “objective” score in the humour test, in which participants rated the funniness of jokes, was calibrated against a prior rating given by a panel of professional comedians.) The participants’ rating of their own performance was then compared to their objective score and their actual ranking in the test results.

In each study, there was a rough correlation between how well a participant performed, and how well they thought they had performed. But participants who performed in the lowest quartile typically believed themselves to be just above average. Participants with scores in the highest quartile tended to rate themselves slightly lower than their actual performance. One might reasonably expect some effect like this, since those with very low scores have little scope to underrate themselves, and those with very high scores are unable to hugely overestimate their abilities. However, the overestimate by the low-scorers was strikingly large, whereas the high-scoring underestimate was much more modest—that asymmetry alone suggests there’s more than just regression to the mean going on.

Dunning-Kruger Figure 1 (1999)
Kruger & Dunning’s Figure 1 gives a representative impression of the results of all their studies

As a follow-up to the grammar test, Kruger and Dunning invited participants from the bottom and top quartile back to their laboratory, and asked them to grade representative responses from the other participants. Then, in the light of that information, they were asked to regrade their own performance. The poor performers did relatively badly at grading the responses of other participants, and then tended to stick with their previous assessment of their own performance—they failed to notice that others had performed better than they had. Those who had scored in the top quartile were better at grading others and, having seen a sample of the performance of others, they appropriately upgraded their assessment of their own performance in terms of percentile ranking—they realized they had performed better than many of the responses they had just graded.

So the high performers seem to be falling foul of the false consensus effect—the belief that others will perform roughly as well as you do yourself. Once they had seen examples of poor performance in other subjects, they were immediately able to recalibrate their estimate of their own performance. Whereas the poor performers, unable to properly detect the good performance of others, stuck with their original inflated idea of their own performance.

In a second version of the logic test, after the participants had completed the test and their initial self-assessment, Kruger and Dunning offered half the participants a brief training package in formal logic, while the other half completed an “unrelated filler task”. All participants were then asked to reassess their own performance in the test. Those who had received training improved their self-assessment, with poor performers revising their self-assessment appropriately downwards, and good performers revising appropriately upwards. Education gave everyone a better insight into their own performance.

So there’s evidence to support the following hypotheses, which together constitute what’s now known as the Dunning-Kruger Effect:

  • Incompetent individuals dramatically overestimate their own ability and performance
  • Incompetent individuals are less able to recognize competence in others
  • Incompetent individuals are less able to gain insight into their own performance by means of comparison with the performance of others
  • Incompetent individuals can gain insight into their own incompetence by becoming more competent

We also have evidence that:

  • Competent individuals may underestimate their own competence as a result of the false-consensus effect
  • Some Cornell University undergraduates are terrifyingly bad at logic—the lowest quartile in one study scored an average 0.3 logic questions right out of ten.

Kruger and Dunning finish with:

Although we feel we have done a competent job in making a strong case for this analysis, studying it empirically, and drawing out relevant implications, our thesis leaves us with one haunting worry that we cannot vanquish. That worry is that this article may contain faulty logic, methodological errors, or poor communication.

It certainly would be ironic if Kruger and Dunning had fallen victim to their own eponymous effect.


Which brings me to my reason for coming back to reread this paper. The Dunning-Kruger Effect seems now to be achieving the status of an internet meme. As knowledge of its existence grows, it comes up more and more in on-line discussions. Those with expertise often accuse their less-informed and more opinionated interlocutors of suffering from the Dunning-Kruger Effect. But the less-informed, unable to detect expertise in others, seem just as likely to accuse the experts of being victims of Dunning-Kruger. At which point, neither side’s argument is advanced by a jot.

Mike Godwin has identified an effect in internet discussions that is called Godwin’s Law:

As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1.

I’d like to propose The Oikofuge’s Law:

As an online discussion grows longer, the probability that the Dunning-Kruger Effect will be invoked approaches 1.

Levison Wood: Walking The Himalayas

Walking The Himalayas cover“You come all this way to see the views and get out of breath? What a strange people you are.”

This is the successor volume to Levison Wood‘s Walking The Nile, which recorded his journey on foot from the source of the Nile to the Mediterranean. It’s a companion to his TV series of the same name on Channel 4.

Walking the Himalayas was always going to be a more nebulous undertaking than walking the Nile. There’s no definite start and end point to the Himalayan range, and no unique line of travel. Wood’s route takes him well south of the mountaineering traverse carried out by Graeme Dingle & Peter Hillary in 1981 (detailed in their book First Across The Roof Of The World, which I’ve reviewed here). Dingle & Hillary’s route linked Kanchenjunga in Sikkim to K2 in Pakistan. Wood covers more of the range, from the Wakhan Corridor in Afghanistan to Gankhar Puensum in Bhutan, but by travelling at a lower level he avoids much weaving to-and-fro, so he actually covers less distance than Dingle and Hillary—a “mere” 1,700 miles compared to their 3,200 miles.

The book makes a fine companion to the television series. It records much that didn’t make it past the editing process for television, as well as providing space for Wood to give us a little history of the region, as well as some personal reminiscences. If I have a grumble, it’s the way the narrative blithely edits out the intermittent presence of a film crew, and indeed proceeds as if there’s no TV documentary involved at all. For instance, it’s difficult to believe that the “spontaneous” decision to hire a helicopter and fly off to look at Mount Everest didn’t have something to do with the involvement of a film director and producer lurking in the background. But Wood isn’t alone in this sort of thing—Gus Casely-Hayford managed to get right through his book, The Lost Kingdoms Of Africa, without ever mentioning the documentary film crew who were travelling with him.

Wood’s book, in contrast to Dingle and Hillary’s, isn’t really about the mountains at all. Apart from a high col at the start of the journey, and a nameless ridge at the end, he doesn’t do much deliberate  mountain climbing; he walks on roads a lot of the time. Instead, he’s much more interested in the people he meets and the cultures he encounters along the way.

The book gives us all the major incidents that turned up on television—crossing wonky bridges and eroded paths, dealing with tense border guards, wading through crocodile-infested rivers, losing the route on rough ground at nightfall, trekking through the monsoon, evacuating a rapidly flooding camp at dead of night, and of course the near-fatal car crash that interrupted (and very nearly ended) the journey. But we also get to read about Wood’s anxious stay in Kabul before the journey started, holed up in a fortified safe-house under the care of a security consultant. Then there’s his audience with the Dalai Lama, in which the wily old sage quickly identified Wood’s journey as potentially good publicity for the Tibetan cause; and his meeting with the Hindu holy man Swami Chidanand Saraswatiji, whose PA reminded Wood, “Don’t forget to like us on Facebook.” We also get to hear a great deal more about Wood’s longstanding friendship with his Nepali walking companion and guide, Binod Pariyar.

Through it all, Wood comes across as the same cheerful, calm, reasonable person that he seems to be on television. There’s a suggestion in the book that he might have had enough of long-distance walking—but then, there was a suggestion at the start of the book that he’d had enough of long-distance walking. So watch this space, I think.

(Added March 2017: And so it turned out. I’ve now reviewed Wood’s next book, Walking the Americas. Here’s a link to the relevant post.)


Note: For interest, I’ve prepared the map below comparing the route taken by Wood with the earlier traverse by Dingle & Hillary. (Both routes were interrupted by problems with direct border crossings, necessitating detours to official crossing points, but Dingle & Hillary incurred a much bigger gap at the Kashmiri Line of Control.)

Comparison of Himalayan traverses
Comparison of Himalayan traverses by Wood (2015) and Dingle & Hillary (1981)
Click to enlarge
(Original base map)

Graeme Dingle & Peter Hillary: First Across The Roof Of The World

Cover of First Across the Roof of the WorldWe’ve been watching Levison Wood‘s Channel 4 series Walking the Himalayas. (And I’ve now reviewed his book of the series here.) The Boon Companion and I had to fight down a wave of nostalgia during the second episode, having spent a happy couple of weeks in Kashmir back in the early 80s, albeit followed by a brief admission to an Infectious Diseases hospital for The Oikofuge.

Anyway, Wood’s Himalayan traverse has prompted me to reread an account of the first such expedition. In 1981, mountaineers Graeme Dingle and Peter Hillary followed a rather free-style 5000-kilometre route from Kanchenjunga to K2. They did this “Alpine style”—travelling light and fast, after the fashion of Alpine mountaineers, rather than using the major-expedition style of classic Himalayan mountaineering. It was extremely Alpine-style: they carried only a tent fly-sheet for shelter, bought their food along the way, and generally walked in Adidas trainers (including during many of their glacier ascents and high col crossings). They only dug out the mountaineering kit when they had to venture over 17,000 feet in eastern Nepal. They walked usually with just one companion, and only occasionally hired porters if they were setting off with a large load of newly purchased food. At widely spaced intervals, where there was road access to the route, friends would bring in additional supplies.

Sometimes they ran out of food. Occasionally their trainers fell apart at inconvenient moments. They didn’t have very good maps, and the directions they got from locals were sometimes of poor quality. They tried to stick as close as possible to the spine of the Himalayas without climbing any peaks, so the journey was an endless up-and-down trek across the southern spurs of the big summits, crossing cols between 16,000 and 20,000 feet high. In 300 days of walking, they racked up a jaw-dropping 1.5 million feet of ascent. Their journey was not quite continuous—they couldn’t make legal border crossings in the high mountains between Sikkim and Nepal, or cross the Line of Control in Kashmir, and so were obliged to make detours by bus to official crossing points, and then take up the journey again as close as possible to the other side of the border. (Levison Wood had the same problem.)

It’s pretty clear that they hated each other for most of the journey, often walking separately for long periods, which must have been immense fun for their single travelling companion, a Nepalese-Tibetan mountaineer called Chewang Tashi. They wrote alternate chapters of this book, each apparently making some effort to spare the other’s feelings, so it’s difficult to know quite why there was so much animosity from so early in the journey. At one point Dingle describes some sort of near-mutiny, in which the support team members demand that Hillary step down as overall leader in favour of Dingle, but Hillary makes no reference to this.

Neither is a great stylist, it has to be said—they both overuse the word “mighty” (mighty peaks, mighty rivers, mighty cliffs); some of the “amusing” anecdotes are simply impenetrable; and neither of them can make up his mind whether they are traversing “the Himalaya” or “the Himalayas”. Only one phrase stood out for me in the whole book, and that was Dingle describing the disappointment of being drunk when everyone else is sober: “Unfortunately, the whisky I drank did little to cheer up those that didn’t drink it”. Even more unfortunately, this led him to try cheering everyone up by pretending to be a blind man falling over a cliff. At which point he … um … actually fell over a cliff. The resulting dislocated shoulder and fractured collar-bone put a bit of crimp in his style for the next few weeks.

But it’s a steady narrative that gets you from A to B. There’s unfortunately only so much that can be said about yet another col, another valley, another river—so the story mainly comes alive during encounters with other people; some friendly, some hostile, some local, some foreign.

Hodder & Stoughton produced a lovely hardback for them—it’s well laid out, with plenty of photographs nicely reproduced. For me, Colin Maclaren’s sketch maps should have been printed a bit larger, by turning them sideways on the page, but that’s probably a side-effect of my worsening presbyopia and the low winter sun at this reading. I don’t remember having the slightest problem with the maps when I first read this book in 1982!

So my only real complaint is the alleged typeface on the cover. I know the 70s and 80s weren’t great decades for typography on book covers, but this one really takes the biscuit:

Typeface from First Across The Roof Of The World
A crime against typography

Doesn’t that look more like a ransom note than an effort to produce a “set of glyphs that share common design features”?


Note: For interest, I’ve prepared the map below comparing the route taken by Dingle & Hillary with the later traverse by Wood. (Both routes were interrupted by problems with direct border crossings, necessitating detours to official crossing points, but Dingle & Hillary incurred a much bigger gap at the Kashmiri Line of Control.)

Comparison of Himalayan traverses by Wood and Dingle & Hillary
Comparison of Himalayan traverses by Wood (2015) and Dingle & Hillary (1981)
Click to enlarge
(Original base map)